Abstract:

From the 2016 EAST experiments, 119 disruption discharge data were selected to analyze the cause of the disruption and it was found that about 60% of the disruption was caused directly by the vertical instability and resulted in larger halo current and bigger electromagnetic stress that might damage the device. The reason for the disruption caused by vertical instability (hereinafter VID) (72 runs) was carefully examined in order to explain its characteristics. In addition, a prediction model based on univariate (vertical displacement) and two-dimensional variables (vertical displacement, and vertical displacement growth rate) is established for VID burst prediction. Off-line tests showed that the prediction model based on two-dimensional variables can give a disruption warning signal 20 ms before disruption, with a success rate of 93%.

Key words: Disruptions, Vertical instability, Physical event, Disruptions prediction

摘要：

从EAST 装置2016 年的放电实验中，选取了119 次等离子体破裂放电数据，分析诱发等离子体破裂的原因，发现约60%的破裂是由垂直不稳定性直接引起的，其破裂后将会产生更大的晕电流，从而产生更大的电磁应力损坏装置。对由垂直不稳定性引起的破裂(简称为VID)(72 次放电)进行了研究，建立了分别基于单变量(垂直位移)和两维变量(垂直位移、垂直位移增长率)的预测模型用于对VID 破裂的预测。离线测试表明，基于两维变量的预测模型可以在破裂发生前20ms 给出破裂预警信号，预测成功率达93%。

关键词: 破裂, 垂直不稳定性, 物理事件, 破裂预测